Thursday, January 31, 2019

Turnpike Sports® Super Bowl picks and PropBets

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My Super Bowl pick

The New England Patriots are favored by 2 points over the Los Angeles Rams with an O/U of 56.5

As a general rule I always love going with the underdog in the Super Bowl. Out of the last 11 Super Bowls the underdog is 8–3. I was really hoping that the line would move towards 3 for the Patriots but I'm still taking the Rams in this one. The Rams have a high-powered offense that could score at will and in a Super Bowl I think they have the most important weapon-- an extremely accurate field-goal kicker that could hit from long-range.

I'm taking the Los Angeles Rams.

For my Prop Bets I was looking to see if there are any locks on the board, and I think I may have found them.

There will be a roughing the passer penalty in the game

YES +150       NO -190

I'm going with YES for this one. This is one of those penalties where I just don't know what the refs are looking at during the play. But one thing is for certain, they been calling an awful lot of this penalty throughout the year and in the playoffs. The Super Bowl shouldn't be any different. Expect the flag to fly if a defensive player gives a dirty look to either of these quarterbacks.

The Patriots will score a rushing touchdown

YES -370      NO +260

You can give Tom Brady all the accolades you want, but this year the Patriots have become a running team. I'm not looking for many long passes from the Patriots offense but instead I'm expecting long, time consuming drives which end with a rushing TD in the red zone. I'm taking the YES in this Prop Bet



Prop Bets

Quarter to Have Most Points

Everyone’s been talking about how little the Pats score in the first quarter and after watching the first rounds of the playoffs, both of these teams seem to get their offenses moving after the opening frame.  I’m thinking we may see both teams get a bunch of points before halftime though so I’m going with the 2nd quarter as my pick here.

Pick is 2nd Quarter

First Scoring Play of the Game

There are plenty of options here so I didn’t list them all.  Again, this goes to New England’s scoring tendencies in the Super Bowl.  I’m expecting them to come out throwing since they’ve been running the bowl consistently in the playoffs.  The Pats always seem to go against type so throwing out of a running formation in their first drive makes sense to me.  If the Pats get the ball first, I’m really starting to feel an passing TD is the choice here. But I also wouldn’t rule out a safety by that Rams defense either.

Pick is Passing TD by Pats

Super Bowl 53

Depending upon which sportsbook you’re using, the lines have either been 3 points or 2 and a half with the Pats being the favorites.  While I don’t think the Rams defense is as good as advertised, I can honestly see that Rams offense picking up the slack. They have one of the freshest running backs remaining in CJ Anderson and if Gurley can play anywhere near what he was doing during the regular season, the Pats may have some problems.  Goff may even be MVP material here. Factor into the equation that the Patriots never blow anyone out in the Super Bowl and you have to take the Rams here.

Pick is Rams

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